2008 NFL Predictions – Week 5

Ted, to the home state G-men: don’t believe your hype

This is not an illusion: my weekly picks column really is finished on a Friday rather than the morning of the games. I had to work ahead this week because I’m going to be in Orlando this weekend for the Against Me! / Ted Leo & the Pharmacists show at the House of Blues on Saturday. Amazing double-bill, but since political, classicist punk bands have little to do with professional football I’ll save that for another day.

I’ve got seven underdogs and seven favorites picked to win this week, so I expect my 14-game buffer to take a serious hit.

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Washington Redskins

Philadelphia has a lot to be happy about right now: the Phillies are up 2-0 in the first round of the MLB playoffs, the 76ers added Elton Brand to a young, exciting lineup that hopes to compete for the Eastern Conference crown and the Eagles—despite last week’s loss—look like one of the best teams in the NFL. Despite this, I guarantee you that every Philly fan is anxiously expecting something absolutely terrible to happen to one (or all three) of the teams.

CAROLINA PANTHERS over Kansas City Chiefs

I know I predicted the Broncos upset last week, but that doesn’t mean I’m buying into this Chiefs team.

DETROIT LIONS over Chicago Bears

Not only are the Lions coming off a bye, but they are playing at home in front of their relieved, excited fans for the first time since long-hated GM Matt Millen was fired. If there was any week to believe that the sorry Lions can win, this is the one.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Atlanta Falcons

If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play and I get screwed out of another correct pick like last week’s Bengals game (more on that later), I swear to God I’m gorging myself to death on cheese bratwurst.

Mmm…cheesy brats…

BALTIMORE RAVENS over Tennessee Titans

This pick goes against all common sense, logic and decency, but I’m making it anyway. The Ravens nearly knocked off the Steelers last week and I like the idea of them taking out their frustration on the Titans in front of a home crowd.

MIAMI DOLPHINS over San Diego Chargers

The Chargers defense hasn’t been very impressive and the Dolphins are playing at home coming off a bye and a big win on the road in New England. However, this pick is based more on the hope that the Dolphins keep running unorthodox offensive plays during their rebuilding process. I don’t understand why teams don’t do that more — if an organization, its players and fans are all aware that they aren’t going to contend for a few years, why not have fun and just play an exciting brand of football? Learn the playbook, grow as a team and execute with professionalism, of course, but don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops. You might even get a few extra wins out of it.

Indianapolis Colts over HOUSTON TEXANS

If the Colts lose this game, it is the last time I’m giving them a “benefit of the doubt” pick. The only reason I didn’t take the Texans here is because I expect the Tony Dungy/Peyton Manning-era Colts to be able to right the ship. That assumption goes out the window if they don’t win here.

Seattle Seahawks over NY GIANTS

Everybody else in the NFC East has lost at least one game, we almost choked away the Bengals win two weeks ago and Plaxico Burress is suspended this week. I don’t like when my team gets too comfortable and with the Hawks getting back two of their starting wide receivers (Deion Branch and Bobby Engram), I feel like this is the game the G-Men get knocked down a peg.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over DENVER BRONCOS

I swear: I’m not picking on the Broncos, no matter how much it appears that way. Denver can’t stop the run and the Bucs have running backs and a good enough defense to neutralize the Broncos’ potent air attack.

Buffalo Bills over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Pretty simple rule here: if you play an undefeated, exciting team the week after allowing Brett Favre to throw a single-game career best 6 touchdowns on you, I’m not picking you to win.

DALLAS COWBOYS over Cincinnati Bengals

The last-minute deactivation of Carson Palmer last week cost me and untold millions of people a correct pick. I had time to go back and edit my already-posted column and online picks, but in the interest of honesty I stuck by my original prediction even though there was no way the Bengals were winning that game. This week they get to play the best team in the league coming off a frustrating loss, so I expect the Cowboys to put up 50 points by half-time.

New England Patriots over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Patriots had an entire bye week to teach Matt Cassel how to get Randy Moss the ball. No excuses.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over Pittsburgh Steelers

The silver lining to Rashard Mendenhall’s season-ending injury: the return of Davenpoops! I’m so excited I might get drunk and defecate in the closest laundry basket. Incidentally, what is the most dangerous job position right now: Pittsburgh running back, Seahawk wide receiver or being Anquan Boldin?

Minnesota Vikings over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I leave you this week with a math equation:

The return of left tackle Bryant McKinnie + Adrian Peterson + desperation > Banged-up, atrocious Saints defense – starting rookie defensive lineman Sedrick Ellis

Last Week: 8-5

Season: 37-23

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 4

You know where you are, Lane Kiffin?! You’re in the jungle, baby. You’re gonna diiiiiiiiiee!!!

The first batch of teams goes on bye this week and that is murder on the good game/bad game ratio. The game I’m most interested in seeing (Tennessee-Minnesota) isn’t on television, but Tampa Bay-Green Bay looks interesting and the Dallas-Washington game has the potential to be competitive (or a blowout). Two of the more intriguing games have primetime slots: Philadelphia at Chicago on Sunday night, which I can watch before and after True Blood (*mildly explicit link warning*), and Baltimore at Pittsburgh on Monday evening.

Last week was rough on my picks, as my streak of weeks where I got at least 10 correctly ended at 2. This week doesn’t promise to be much easier with fewer games and way too many home teams favored to win.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI BENGALS over Cleveland Browns

“The Disappointing Ohio Team Bowl.” I see this game being another ugly shoot-out with no defense. Of course, it could also be boring as sin. The Bengals have to win eventually…right?

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over Houston Texans

Is it just me or has there been almost no media talk about Jags’ wide receiver Matt Jones getting arrested for coke possession? I bet if it was Adam “Don’t Call Me Pacman” Jones there would be a whole lot more noise being made. Just sayin’.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Minnesota Vikings

I believe in this Tennessee defense until I see otherwise. Locking down Adrian Peterson will be a test, but I’m more interested in the battle between Kerry Collins and Gus Frerotte—the first of several match-ups this week between old and/or washed-up quarterbacks.

KANSAS CITY over Denver Broncos

Last week when I predicted that the football gods would strike down the Broncos due to the bad call that helped them beat the Chargers, I forgot to factor in that the Saints kind of suck. Since the Broncos were once again assisted by a bad call and I need to pick at least a few upsets, I’m going with the miserable Chiefs in this one.

Green Bay Packers over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

I don’t know what to make of this Bucs team. They are good, but not great. A solid defense that is getting up there in age. A Brian Griese-led offense with a good running back tandem (Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn, who hasn’t looked this good in years) and an inconsistent passing game (Joey Galloway’s injury is hurting them). They look bound for a playoff berth with another first round bounce, but Gruden has worked miracles before and this season is wide open.

Despite devoting all that time to the Bucs, I think the Pack wins this: they’ve shown glimmers of being dominant and once again, I need a few road underdog picks (yes, Tampa is favored).

CAROLINA PANTHERS over Atlanta Falcons

I refuse to pick Matt Ryan to win on the road until it happens…which I could very easily see being this week.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over San Francisco 49ers

Is it possible that the 49ers aren’t as bad as we thought? I’d pick them to win this one, but I can’t see the Saints falling to 1-3. I have more respect for them than that. On the other hand, you know their season isn’t going well when I had to send my friend Nick, a lifelong Saints fan, the following message on Monday: “I knew [Jeremy] Shockey’s yearly trip to the injury report was coming, I just didn’t expect it this soon.”

NEW YORK JETS over Arizona Cardinals

Brett Favre and Kurt Warner collide in “The AARP Bowl”! In all seriousness, it’s great to see the two of them playing at such a high level so long after their Super Bowl-winning primes.

San Diego Chargers over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Predicting when Lane Kiffin might actually be fired this year is sort of like predicting when Chinese Democracy would come out during the last two decades (random note: it might actually be happening in November), since Al Davis is arguably just as crazy as Axl Rose is. Which one happens sooner? I don’t know, but I would love to see people betting on that in Vegas.

Buffalo Bills over ST. LOUIS RAMS

With quite a few amazingly bad teams (Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland), how screwed up is St. Louis that everyone pretty much agrees that they are the worst? The owner threatens to make changes if the team doesn’t improve, the coach responds by benching his quarterback (Marc Bulger) in favor of Trent Green, the team’s best player (running back Steven Jackson) criticizes the benching and the star wide receiver (Torry Holt) apologizes to Bulger on behalf of the entire offense for not making enough plays. This has the potential to become really ugly and unintentionally hysterical.

(What isn’t funny, however, is the potential for a serious injury: I’m seriously concerned about Trent Green’s health. He has a bad history with concussions and the Rams offensive line can’t block a stool right now.)

DALLAS COWBOYS over Washington Redskins

This is one of the picks I really hope I get wrong, but it’ll be a win-win for me regardless. I always root for the NFC East teams to take each other down (especially the better teams like Dallas) and give my Giants an advantage. Unfortunately Dallas still looks like the consensus Super Bowl pick. Of course, that was true last year and we know how that went.

Philadelphia Eagles over CHICAGO BEARS

You know who else looks like a Super Bowl contender? The freakin’ Philadelphia Eagles. The NFC East is serious business. Philly is actually the rival city that I hate the least, mostly because I empathize with the suffering of their fans. Plus I’ve always liked Donovan McNabb, kind of like how I’ve always respect Emmitt Smith even though I hate the Cowboys with every fiber of my being.

Eagles star player Brian Westbrook missed practice and is probably a game-time decision, so if he can’t go it’ll be interesting to see if the offense can still dominate without him.

Baltimore Ravens over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

My other crazy upset pick of the week. Not only are the Steelers without running back Willie Parker, but their offensive line hasn’t been able to protect Big Ben against good defenses and I think the Ravens defense is back. I like the potential for a Monday Night classic.

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 29-18

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 3

The Broncos better watch out for the cracked-PVC pipe-wielding hand of the football fates…

This week’s picks are coming in late and under deadline, but I have a valid excuse: my younger sister’s birthday was yesterday and I spent a lot of time coordinating Saturday’s celebratory get-together. My girlfriend and I baked homemade Peanut Butter Chip Brownie Cupcakes that had our guests clamoring for the recipe (she did almost all the work) and between partying and shuttling the birthday girl to and from the FSU game, it just wasn’t the occasion for column writing.

The first of this weekend’s games start in less than three hours, so just in case I run late picking the afternoon, evening and Monday night games, I’m going to update this blog live as I finish each pick.

(Home team in caps)

BUFFALO BILLS over Oakland Raiders

Like everyone else in the country, I’m starting to buy into the Bills as this year’s sleeper playoff team. As frisky as the Raiders looked last week, it was against the sorry Kansas City Chiefs so I’m not jumping back on to that bandwagon just yet.

NY GIANTS over Cincinnati Bengals

If I wasn’t a Giants homer, this would be my risky, upset-special pick of the week. The Giants have looked solid, but against weaker competition and the Bengals have looked atrocious, but against a great defensive team (Tennessee) and a potentially-great defensive team (Baltimore). The Bengals have too much talent to be as bad as they looked, so I could easily see them clawing out a win with their backs against the wall.

However, the Giants are well-coached and I’d like to think that they aren’t going to take any team lightly, especially as members of the insanely-competitive NFC East division. Plus, it’s hard to feel confident picking the Bengals after my best friend (who owns Carson Palmer in his fantasy football league) sent me the following text in frustration last weekend: “When did Wyatt Sexton become the Bengals quarterbacks coach?” Ouch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over CHICAGO BEARS

This is not a great week to pick against the home team. Other than the Green Bay Packers (who play against Super Bowl favorites the Dallas Cowboys), every home team is favored to win. I expect to lose a lot of ground with my picks this week since I’m making a lot of risky picks, starting with this one—especially fitting, as I have no good argument for making it.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Houston Texans

The Titans defense looks nasty and I remember the time that Kerry Collins took a nasty defense to a Super Bowl (and then lost in the second most painful sports experience of my life). Of course, that was almost eight years ago and Collins had Tiki Barber in his prime and Ike Hilliard and Amani Toomer instead of Justin Gage and whoever else the Titans have at wide receiver. Chris Johnson has been a productive running back, so I see no reason why the Titans can’t run and defend their way into the playoffs like they did last year. I’m also worried about the Texans having so much extra time off.

Arizona Cardinals over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

This is a combination of wanting the rest of the NFC East teams to lose and needing to pick at least a few road team underdogs because you know some of them are going to win. While Redskins do have a solid defense, the Cardinals passing game is simply clicking right now.

Carolina Panthers over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I initially had the Vikings getting back on track in this one, but then I remembered that the Panthers have looked good, they’re getting Steve Smith back and the only way to beat the Vikings is to pass on them. This is the most obvious road team underdog pick and I just know I’ll feel stupid later today if I don’t pick them.

ATLANTA FALCONS over Kansas City Chiefs

Priceless moment of the week: Larry Johnson complaining about not getting enough touches after he rushed for 22 yards on 12 attempts against the horrendous Raiders and signing that big contract last season. The Chiefs are bad.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are pretty bad too and this gives the Patriots a chance to have an extended practice session for Matt Cassel. He’s been a good game manager and is finding Wes Welker in the slot, but he needs to learn how to get the ball to Randy Moss.

New Orleans Saints over DENVER BRONCOS

I was tempted to put an asterisk next to my right-wrong totals below after that botched officiating call in the Denver-San Diego game handed me an extra victory, but I think that would set a bad precedent for the column (as well as look incredibly stupid). Almost like Final Destination, but with football losses, I think the fates are going to strike down the Broncos this week against a Saints team hungry for a bounce back after blowing their game against the Redskins.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over Detroit Lions

This is arguably, the worst game of the weekend…

St. Louis Rams over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

…no, wait! THIS one is. I don’t care that the Rams might actually be the worst team in the NFL, the Seahawks have no receivers and managed to lose at home to the 49ers. The Rams owner threatened to make changes if things don’t turn around and wide receiver Torry Holt called out the offensive line for not protecting the quarterback and opening up holes for Steven Jackson. My apologies to the entire city of Seattle, but I see the Rams making something happen this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Jaguars are in a must-win situation and have ran all over the Colts in recent meetings, which makes the loss of safety Bob Sanders even worse for Indianapolis. I also kind of like the Colts better when they are battling for their lives instead of dominating teams—it makes them more interesting and fun to root for.

Cleveland Browns over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens also had extra time off and since I factored that in to my pick against the Texans I feel obligated to pick against Baltimore. The Browns are going to be desperate to prove that last season’s 10-6 finish wasn’t a fluke and they aren’t who we thought they were, so expect them to take it out on the Ravens.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Pittsburgh Steelers

How great was that Eagles-Cowboys game on Monday? I’m so glad football season is here. This is a potential Super Bowl preview and a complete toss-up. Both teams look excellent, but I think the Eagles are going to want it just a little bit more after that heartbreak of a loss last week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys, on the other hand, I have looking at a letdown game after all the emotion and energy they expended taking down the Eagles. Super Bowl favorites or not, they have to lose to somebody and this is a statement game for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Lambeau Field is going to be electric and I don’t think the Cowboys will have enough left for back-to-back epic battles.

SAN DIEGO over NY Jets

I’ve said it from week 1, but the Jets just won’t be fun without their fans losing hope and going crazy early. I think Favre and company will make it to the playoffs, but the Chargers are owed a victory after last week’s nonsense.

Last Week: 10-5 (Houston-Baltimore game re-scheduled due to stadium damage)

Season: 20-11

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 2

C’mon Eagles: do you really want to get clowned on by HER?

This isn’t being widely reported, but is no less true: I caused Tom Brady’s season-ending injury.

It wasn’t intentional, I swear. While I wasn’t on the field that fateful Sunday afternoon, I did anger the fantasy gods and they chose to take it out on the entire Patriots organization, their fans and untold numbers of fantasy players everywhere. One simple sentence about the Patriots-Chiefs game was all it took to tear Brady’s ACL and MCL:

“All I have to say is that I have Tom Brady in one fantasy league, Randy Moss in another and plan to be cackling with glee while checking the stat lines from this game on Sunday.

I learned my lesson, fantasy gods, and I will never again brag about—or even mention!—my fantasy teams in this column again.

(Home team in caps)

New Orleans Saints over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Even without Marques Colston and playing on the road, the Saints are still up against the Redskins, who looked terrible last Thursday.

Chicago Bears over CAROLINA PANTHERS

My pithy comments about the Bears and Panthers backfired too. I can’t rectify both wrong picks this week, so I’m just going with the underdog.

Green Bay Packers over DETROIT LIONS

I know I picked the Vikings to beat them last week, but how awesome was it to see Aaron Rodgers lead the Pack to victory on Monday night? I feel for Rodgers’ situation and I’m rooting for him to succeed, so there was nothing better than seeing him do the “Lambeau Leap” into the arms of cheering fans after running in a touchdown.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS over Oakland Raiders

I wasn’t completely wrong when I said the Raiders offense was “potentially exciting,” no more than when I said Raising the Bar was a “potentially good” television show. They were “potentially” good, but after viewing both I can say they “kind of suck.” True Blood’s pilot, however, was intriguing enough to keep me watching through at least episode two.

NY Giants over ST. LOUIS RAMS

How bad is your team when fantasy football expert Matthew Berry predicts that Eli Manning (one of his most hated quarterbacks) will put up top 5-caliber numbers on you this week?

Buffalo Bills over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I simply cannot predict the Jags to win when they are missing three starting offensive lineman.

Indianapolis Colts over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I have too much respect for Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts to believe they’ll start off the season 0-2

Tennessee Titans over CINCINNATI BENGALS

My best friend is a Dolphins fan, his fiancé is a Bengals fan and they both graduated from Florida State, making them the most miserable football couple I know for more than two years running.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS over Atlanta Falcons

I can understand why Jeff Garcia is so insistent that he’s healthy enough to play: who really wants to lose their starting job to Brian Griese when that means having to share something in common with Rex Grossman for the rest of their lives?

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over San Francisco 49ers

The only reason I’m not picking the Niners in this game: J.T. O’Sullivan on the road. I don’t care if Matt Hasselbeck has a bulging disk in his back and no wide receivers, they’ll find a way to win at home. Plus I don’t want to add to the misery of Seattle sports fans: they’ve suffered enough.

DENVER BRONCOS over San Diego Chargers

Remember last year when Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was caught taunting Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler during their teams’ Christmas Eve match-up? Regardless of whether or not Cutler started it, the Chargers won that battle and this week looks like a revenge game. I know it was only Oakland, but Cutler decimated them on Monday. He’s got his diabetes under control and he’s ready to start taking names, starting with Philip Rivers.

New England Patriots over NY JETS

Count me among the few that think the Patriots will find a way to survive without Brady and possibly still win the division. This is the first time in a long while that New England has been able to play the “nobody believed in us!” card and it might be enough to propel them to victory over the Jets.

Random note: it might be a little outdated now, but last season I was really hoping somebody would make one of those “Stop Snitchin’” shirts with a goofy picture of Eric Mangini next to a picture of Bill Belichik looking irritated (neither photo would be hard to find). I would’ve bought one as quickly as I could pull out my credit card.

ARIZONA CARDINALS over Miami Dolphins

One thing I hate about living in Florida: I’m probably going to have to watch this stupid game instead of the Broncos-Chargers or Patriots-Jets games. Just like every time I get pizza for dinner, this is one of those occasions I really miss living in New Jersey.

Pittsburgh Steelers over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Both teams are going to be experiencing déjà vu, feeling like they played this game last week.

HOUSTON TEXANS over Baltimore Ravens

This game got moved to Monday night because of the hurricane and is now being postponed until further notice due to stadium damage. Joe Flacco impressed me last week, but not enough to believe he can win his first game on the road as a rookie, especially against a talented Houston team still smarting from getting spanked by the Steelers.

Philadelphia Eagles over DALLAS COWBOYS

This week’s upset special. I originally picked Dallas to win this game, but then I remembered that Jessica Simpson was running her mouth about the Eagles on Good Morning America. I have to believe that’ll provide extra motivation for Philly to embarrass the Cowboys in their own house on national TV.

Last Week: 10-6

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 1 (Part 2)

The real question is who suffers the Madden curse for this: Favre and the Jets or the Packers?

As promised, I’m back with my picks for the rest of week 1 and I come bearing a 1-0 record. The Redskins did not look anywhere near as good as I thought they would and while my Giants looked amazing during the first quarter, the offense stalled as the game went on and the defense went from dominating to merely “bend, don’t break.”

The low-scoring game provided only one real highlight: Giants running back Brandon Jacobs trucking ’Skins safety LaRon Landry.

I forgot to mention on Thursday that the home team is in caps.

Detroit Lions over ATLANTA FALCONS

Matt Ryan: Welcome to the NFL. I harbor no ill will toward the rookie quarterback, but being a Seminole alum I would like nothing more than to see Ernie Sims clobber an ACC rival.

Seattle Seahawks over BUFFALO BILLS

Buffalo is a popular pick this week, which is precisely why I’m NOT picking them, even at home. That being said, this is the pick that will surprise me the least if I’m wrong about it.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars will be opening on the road with the shooting of offensive tackle Richard Collier lingering in their thoughts and I think that’ll be more distraction than motivation. I believe the Jaguars will be contenders this year, but people are sleeping on the Titans. Their success depends on the development of Vince Young and whether or not their passing game can survive having veteran tight end Alge Crumpler as their best receiving option.

NY Jets over MIAMI DOLPHINS

I don’t have the guts to predict that “The Revenge of Chad Pennington” will be coming Sunday to a sports bar near you, as much as I’d enjoy that. I’m not being hateful, but c’mon: can the Brett Favre-era really begin without some good old-fashioned, doomsday freak-outs from the Jets fans should they lose this game. They aren’t even feeling confident now—when I asked my friend Vinnie, a lifelong Jets fan, what he thought of the Farve-led squad he responded, “I dunno, I am here and there.” I grew up next to door to Vinnie rooting for the Jets’ stadium-mates: I know the feeling.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Kansas City Chiefs

All I have to say is that I have Tom Brady in one fantasy league, Randy Moss in another and plan to be cackling with glee while checking the stat lines from this game on Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If Reggie Bush doesn’t break out this season, I’m blaming Kim Kardashian. There is no other logical explanation for his struggles.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over St. Louis Rams

Despite the drafting of Chris Long, the Rams defense is not good yet. Philly’s receivers are banged up, but Brian Westbrook can carry the offense and I’m banking on rookie DeSean Jackson having a big game. I drafted him as a sleeper in almost all my fantasy leagues and since Santana Moss put up good numbers last night after I benched him in favor of Jackson, I really need to be right this week.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Houston Texans

Forget the fantasy implications of rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall possibly vulturing touchdowns from starter Willie Parker: the biggest impact of Mendenhall’s successful off-season was the release of back-up running back Najeh Davenport, bringing an end to my ability to laugh and yell out “Davenpoops!” every time he touched the ball during Steelers games.

BALTIMORE RAVENS over Cincinnati Bengals

After an off-season of Terrell Owens-esque complaining that had me wondering if 2008 would be the year that he and T.O. switched reputations, Chad Johnson won me back by showing up to camp with a positive disposition and legally changing his name to “Chad Ocho Cinco.” Comedic brilliance, especially since it forced the NFL to allow him to put it on the back of his jersey.

While I’d love to predict a win for Ocho Cinco and my fellow Lake Mary High School alumnus Keith Rivers (Seminole county, represent!), the Bengals are banged-up, disorganized and—frankly—a little overrated. Despite starting a rookie quarterback (Joe Flacco) and possibly a rookie running back (my boy Ray Rice out of Rutgers is tapped to replace an injured Willis McGahee, who may not play) while adjusting to a new coaching staff, I’m taking the home team in my upset special.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS over Carolina Panthers

Let’s be honest: if you were Steve Smith, wouldn’t you have punched at least a dozen of your teammates by this point? Just sayin’.

Arizona Cardinals over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

“With the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select…”

Dallas Cowboys over CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Tony Romo-Jessica Simpson relationship. T.O. “Tank” Johnson. The Cornerback Formerly Known as “Pacman” Jones. Every Dallas-hating fiber in my body is hoping this team implodes so that I can see owner Jerry Jones make the same face he wore after the Giants upset the Cowboys in the playoffs last year.

Unfortunately, every football knowledge-possessing fiber in my brain tells me the Dallas Cowboys are winning the Super Bowl this year.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Chicago Bears

It’s like the 2007 Super Bowl, except without Prince owning faces and any doubt as to who will win.

Minnesota Vikings over GREEN BAY PACKERS

This one is a toss-up for me. One of two things is going to happen: Adrian Peterson is going to have another one of those big games that helps solidify his star status or Aaron Rodgers is going to step into Brett Favre’s shoes and deliver a great performance to (at least temporarily) lift the hopes of the Green Bay faithful.

I’m going to play it safe and pick the result that has already occurred.

OAKLAND RAIDERS over Denver Broncos

My other super upset special for the week. I’m in the camp that thinks the Raiders might not be totally terrible this year: they have an underrated defense and a potentially exciting, developing offense. I’m interested to finally see quarterback JaMarcus Russell play and this could be a coming out party for rookie running back Darren McFadden.

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 1 (Part 1)

Months later, 18-1 still makes me LOL.

This probably isn’t the best lead in the world, but I stand by my honesty: I’m no more qualified to be making picks for each NFL game every week than you are. In some cases, those of you reading this are probably more qualified than I am. Don’t get me wrong: I love football, but if you toss aside my participation in four fantasy leagues this year, I don’t immerse myself in the sport to the same degree I do music or basketball.

A lack of experience isn’t going to prevent me from having a little fun during this most wonderful time of the year, so without any further blathering, I present you with my pick for tonight’s opening game of the 2008 NFL season. The rest of the picks will be posted sometime before Sunday’s games begin (translation: I’ve made my picks, but haven’t finished writing about them).

NY GIANTS over Washington Redskins

I don’t expect my beloved G-Men to come close to equaling the success of last season. It isn’t in my blood to be optimistic about this team (not after living through the Dave Brown/Danny Kanell/Kerry Collins eras), but I have a post-Super Bowl grace period of at least a year or two before I’m allowed to be morose about them, so I don’t really care what happens this year (despite whatever loud profanities I utter this fall). The defensive line isn’t going to be what it was last year, not without the retired Michael Strahan and the injured Osi Umenyiora, but I predict our secondary will show marked improvement. I also think that we could have a surprisingly potent offense, assuming Eli Manning’s maturation during last year’s playoffs wasn’t a heavenly fluke.

None of this has anything to do with why I think we win tonight’s game. Nor does blatant homerism. I think the Giants win because its opening night and they are the defending Super Bowl champions. Nobody said I was being logical.

Even if they had trouble playing at home last year, that won’t be the case in game one: the fans see them as winners and until things go south, the Giants are the toast of the town. The Redskins, meanwhile, will be playing their first game under a new coaching staff on the road. I think Washington is going to be good this year and I can totally see this one turning into a shootout, but I can’t pick against my guys in the first week. I can’t do it.

Visit Tallahassee.com at 2:30 a.m. Aug. 24 for ‘Liveblogging the Men’s Basketball Gold Medal Game’

In the Olympics, friends become foes, bros become hoes and only one of them will be wearing Gold for once…

We better win this game.

Naturally, I’m rooting hard for the USA Men’s basketball team in their gold medal match-up with Spain tonight…err…tomorrow. Whatever. All I know is I’m staying up tonight and watching the game at 2:30 a.m. Sunday morning with my computer in my lap and a bottle of Jagermeister at my side.

Oh, so about the bottle of Jager: the basement in my girlfriend’s home got flooded so for five hours today she, my sister and I were helping her mom and stepdad scoop, mop, towel and vacuum the nasty water off their floors. The storm was still coming down hard so we were getting soaked and muddy walking the buckets of water out to the curb drain.

Could’ve been worse, but that bottle was the first thing I bought when we left to come back to the apartment. But more important than the alcohol is the computer. This blog is to let you know that — assuming I don’t lose power or the cable feed — I am going to be writing a live blog over at Tallahassee.com (you’ll see it on the page come gametime) for the gold medal game, offering updates, commentary and bad jokes for anyone else crazy enough to be staying up late to watch the game.

If you happen to be watching (and feel semi-coherent), send your own comments and jokes to me at mgilmour@tallahassee.com, I’ll try to include a few in the blog.

See you tonight and go Team USA!

PS: I want to give a shout-out to The Lakers Nation.com, a great new site for news and discussion. I probably won’t be writing about basketball any time soon, so I figured I’d better get that in while I could.

Improving ‘Intimacy’: Bloc Party returns to form, joins growing trend

It’s not every day you see a British guy reppin’ the Bruins…

Had anyone asked me the latest news on Bloc Party when I woke up Monday morning, all I would’ve been able to tell them is this:

“You know, I haven’t thought about that band in a while. They put out their sophomore album—I forget its name — a few years ago and even though I liked it, it was a grower that I needed to spend more time with to truly appreciate and I never did. Not as great as their debut, Silent Alarm, but I think it got a bad rap from fans and critics. I should really give it another listen today. I wonder what those guys are up to?”

It is three days later and I am currently listening to Bloc Party’s third album, Intimacy, the follow-up to last year’s A Weekend in the City (oh, that was the name of it!). The band announced on Monday that they had recorded a new album and were making it available for purchase on Thursday via their Web site. $20 gets you an immediate digital download while you wait for the CD (with additional songs) to be shipped on Oct. 27, $10 gets you the MP3s only.

I’m still listening to the album (it’s ace so far), so I’ll get to the music criticism portion of this blog momentarily. Meanwhile, it is worth pointing out that this method of releasing music has become increasingly common in the time since Radiohead’s In Rainbows became the poster child for digital distribution last October—a wide range of artists including Nine Inch Nails, Girl Talk and Paul Westerberg have all experimented with the technique in a variety of ways, lending legitimacy to a practice that could easily become the next business model for the music industry, even if the results have been mixed.

Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails, recently freed from the contractual obligations to his old record label, gave away his new album, The Slip, for free in May (without any prior announcement) as a gift to his fans. Reznor had previously released Ghost I-IV in a similar fashion, making it available in a wide variety of formats for different costs. Both albums are now in stores, released through his independent label. This method of distribution is perfect for Reznor — he has the money and built-in fan base from two decades of work to do whatever he wants at very little risk.

Conversely, renaissance man Saul Williams (in collaboration with Reznor) gave fans the option of either a free download or paying $5 (for higher quality files) for his fantastic album, The Inevitable Rise and Liberation of NiggyTardust!, in November, eight months before its physical release. Unfortunately, Reznor stated in January that only 28,322 people out of 154,449 of Saul’s fans chose to pay for the album, which is pathetic. Every system has its flaws.

Regardless, I’m excited about digital distribution. I’m strapped for cash at this stage of my life and hardly ever buy CDs anymore, but I am more than happy to give money to artists willing to take chances like this and reinvent the way they deliver music to their fans. By the time I downloaded NiggyTardust!, there was a mandatory $15 charge, but I easily could’ve tracked it down for free on the Internet if I really wanted to. Given the option of downloading Girl Talk’s Feed the Animals for free, I paid $10, just as I did for Intimacy, even though I never bought Bloc Party’s previous album.

That reminds me — I finished listening to Intimacy and it is actually really good, an improvement upon A Weekend in the City if for no other reason than my feeling immediately gratified after only one listen. Paul Epworth and Jacknife Lee, who produced Silent Alarm and Weekend respectively, were both behind the boards for the album and it shows: Intimacy sounds like a fusion of Bloc Party’s previous work, blending the more single-oriented, post-punk grooves of Alarm into the broad experimentalism of Weekend, with an even greater emphasis on the dance floor. It returns the band to all the things that got me interested in them in the first place.

And to think just a few days ago, nobody was expecting a new Bloc Party album. Welcome to the new millennium folks. It is nothing if not exciting.

Parents just don’t understand movie etiquette

Don’t even think about bringing that fucking kid in here…

I plan to have children of my own one day, frightening as that is to me and anyone living through the next century. I worry from time to time what kind of father I’ll be—probably the embarrassing type, blasting 20-year-old Jay-Z albums when I drop them off at high school and attending punk shows into my 50s. But whenever I start to doubt my ability to raise a child that doesn’t grow up to be a stripper or reality TV participant, two things put me at ease. First, my children are going to have an awesome mother with saintly patience and the wisdom of Yoda.

More importantly, however, is that every day I can encounter really dumb parents to teach me exactly how not to raise a kid.

My earliest research came from working in the deli department at Wal-Mart in Sanford during the summer after I graduated high school. When I wasn’t dealing with stupid customers (“Can I have 3 or 4 or 5 strips of chicken?”), I could observe the most unique parenting styles this side of the Spears family. Personal favorite: a mother ordering her son to get off of the undercarriage of the shopping cart he was playing on…while she was still pushing it. Tuck and roll, Jimmy!

The source of this specific diatribe was a particularly inept father sitting behind me, my girlfriend, her father and brother during a showing of Iron Man at the Movies 8 last night (great flick, by the way). From the moment we took our seats during the commercials and previews, his son—who my girlfriend, the only one of us that got a good look at him, estimated to be three years old—was loudly providing toddler commentary on everything that sparked his interest.

This was cute at first, until it became clear that baby Cosell had no intention of letting it up once the feature presentation began, a fear solidified by his yelling out “Is this Spider-Man?!” when the Marvel Comics logo popped up at the film’s onset. Dad tried to explain to his son that he had to be quiet now that the movie started, but this worked about as effectively as a blind proofreader, leading to the fatherly advice that almost popped an artery in my eyeball: “If you’re going to talk, you have to whisper.”

Damien grasped that fundamentally stupid concept for precisely one sentence.

Thankfully, his outbursts grew less sporadic (or perhaps simply less audible) as the film went on, aided in equal doses by the loudness of the film (God, it was so freaking awesome) and my girlfriend turning around in irritation, leading to more assertive shushing by the father. But the boy was saving his encore for the latter half of the movie: emitting the foulest smell I have ever experienced in a theater.

There was debate among our party as to whether the kid actually pooped himself or not and the opinions ranged depending on seating position. My girlfriend (who sat directly behind the kid) was convinced of the existence of feces and wanted to vomit, while her father (who was two seats down) felt the child was merely passing gas. I was in between—literally and figuratively, unsure of the exact nature of the stank.

One thing I am not on the fence about is this: my children will not be going out to the movies—any movie—until they are old enough to understand theater etiquette.

Don’t get me wrong: none of this was the son’s fault. He didn’t know he was being rude because the concept of manners is still developing inside of him (not unlike that vicious bowel movement). His father should know better than to bring him out to the theater, especially to see a violent movie filled with sexual innuendo, bad language and a plot too intricate for a 3-year-old to adequately comprehend. Even the film’s positive messages are going to fly over his head.

I understand how hard it is for parents to get out of the house to do things that they want to do and I’m sure this guy just really wanted to see Iron Man (it was, after all, the hotness). I also understand that when I decide to settle down and have children, my social life is going to take a bit of a hit. My home will feel like a benign hostage crisis. Waiting for the DVD release of the films I’m interested in will become as routine as a poopy diaper. But I’m not going to annoy the rest of the general public just so I can take in a flick on bargain night.

If he found a way to sire a child in between battling terrorists and bedding models, I’m sure Tony Stark would take the same approach.

Oh, cool: Timbaland produced the new Chris Cornell album…wait, what?

In 2008, this shit is perfectly normal…

If you told the average alternative music fan in 1994 that the lead singer of Soundgarden would go on to front a band made up of the musicians from Rage Against the Machine, they would have found this odd, but not necessarily out of the realm of possibility.

If you then added to that revelation that said singer would also have his third solo album produced by an acclaimed, innovative hip-hop producer, the fan’s head would have (expletive) exploded immediately.

Both those situations are now true. Pop culture in 2008 is a strange beast.

I first heard that Chris Cornell — “grunge” icon and possessor of one of rock’s most distinctive howls — would be collaborating with Timbaland — acclaimed hit-maker and the genius that made Justin Timberlake a critics’ darling — through an article about how Tim claims to be producing Jay-Z’s entire next album (a more promising, but far less intriguing meeting of minds).

“Chris Cornell and Timbaland?” I thought. “Really? I…guess that could work.” I was cautiously optimistic, figuring both artists had earned the benefit of the doubt (in spite of Audioslave and Timbo’s recent market saturation). Although Cornell’s resume makes him the unlikeliest of Timbaland collaborators, who am I to begrudge a musician’s desire to dabble in other sounds and styles while exploring uncharted and uncharacteristic avenues?

Fortunately I didn’t have to wait long to hear the results: a song from the new album (“Long Gone”) is currently streaming online at Ryan Seacrest.com. Yes, the new single from the frontman of Soundgarden is being previewed on the personal Web page for the host of American Idol, a guy more famous than half the people he interviews…including, at this point, Chris Cornell. The new millennium is crazy, man.

(Worth noting: at the time of writing, Seacrest’s Web site credits the song to “Christ Cornell,” which is really funny for obvious reasons.)

While better than some have imagined, I still don’t know how I feel about “Long Gone” yet and I’ve listened to the song almost a dozen times. I could judge it more easily if there weren’t annoying “on air with Ryan Seacrest!” promotional drops scattered throughout the song like it was a DJ Khaled mixtape. Regardless of the stream quality, “Long Gone” provides as big a case of cognitive dissonance as possible for someone who enjoys both Soundgarden and Timbaland’s production discography equally. “Spoonman” this is not.

The knee-jerk song comparison is “Apologize,” the rock ballad Timbaland remixed for One Republic on his Shock Value album, but that makes it seem a lot fluffier than it actually is. There’s “My Love”-style electronic flourishes and relatively-subdued (for Timbaland) drum layers, but the backbone of “Long Gone” is the ethereal guitar lines (think the Edge) and Cornell’s earnest vocals. It sounds nothing like anything Cornell has ever done before; the closest reference point I can come up with at this time is Zooropa and Pop-era U2 (a plus for me, not so much for the rest of society).

While the sound of Cornell’s voice emoting over Timbaland production was initially jarring and confusing, the song is growing on me. It would be easier to judge if I’d never heard Soundgarden, if I wasn’t aware of how ridiculous it sounds to fans of Cornell’s roots in gritty, heavy rock and roll. It also doesn’t help that Timbaland claims the album is “the best work I’ve done in my career” (Really? Better than FutureSex/LoveSounds or “Dirt Off Your Shoulder,” Tim?), while Cornell feels it’s “a highlight of my career.”

All that said, it’s way too easy (and just a little bit obvious) to simply dismiss this as a cred-killing, sell-out move, blasphemy to Soundgarden and the entire ’90s grunge scene. Although it treads dangerously close to schlocky, Coldplay-lite territory, “Long Gone” is a solid pop song.

As hard as that might be to admit, I’m too old to get caught up in the purist-hysterics of my youth and lame enough to enjoy something slightly embarrassing.